MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0779

Msg # 1156 of 2431 on Fidonet Weather Echo
Time: Tuesday, 6-02-20, 9:56
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ACUS11 KWNS 020956
SPC MCD 020956
Mesoscale Discussion 0779
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0456 AM CDT Tue Jun 02 2020
Areas affected...Portions of far southeastern MT...southern ND...and
northern SD
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 020956Z - 021230Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Storms may pose an isolated threat for large hail and
perhaps strong/gusty winds early this morning. Watch issuance is
unlikely at this time.
DISCUSSION...A mid-level shortwave trough will continue to progress
eastward across the northern Plains and AB/SK over the next few
hours. Large-scale ascent preceding this feature is beginning to
overspread a reservoir of mainly elevated instability extending from
southeastern MT into the Dakotas. Steep mid-level lapse rates
present on the 00Z observed soundings from BIS and UNR likely remain
across much of the Dakotas early this morning. MUCAPE rapidly
increases with southward extent across SD, but developing convection
should tend to stay closer to the elevated instability gradient from
far southeastern MT and extending eastward along/near the ND/SD
border. Strong effective bulk shear exists across this region owing
to a 45-55 kt southwesterly mid-level jet attendant to the shortwave
trough. Any storms that can persist in this environment should
acquire supercellular characteristics given the strong shear, with
an associated large hail threat. The damaging wind threat may remain
more limited owing to a fairly stable boundary layer to the north of
a weak front draped east/west across SD, but strong/gusty winds
cannot be ruled out. Current expectations are for overall storm
coverage to remain rather isolated. Accordingly, watch issuance will
probably not be needed.
..Gleason/Guyer.. 06/02/2020
...Please see for graphic product...
LAT...LON   45120405 45380475 46180467 46600401 46860305 46750137
            46560017 46129968 45419975 45060044 45030195 45120405
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