MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0780

Msg # 1158 of 2431 on Fidonet Weather Echo
Time: Tuesday, 6-02-20, 12:42
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ACUS11 KWNS 021242
SPC MCD 021242
Mesoscale Discussion 0780
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0742 AM CDT Tue Jun 02 2020
Areas affected...Portions of southern ND...northern SD...and far
west-central MN
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 021242Z - 021415Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Ongoing storms may pose an isolated large hail and wind
threat as they move eastward this morning. A watch will probably not
be needed, but trends will be closely monitored.
DISCUSSION...Ongoing storms across far south-central ND should
continue eastward in tandem with a shortwave trough over the
northern Plains and central Canada. Steep mid-level lapse rates were
observed on the 12Z ABR sounding, along with around 40 kt of
effective bulk shear. An elevated instability gradient exists
roughly parallel to the ND/SD border and into west-central MN. These
storms may persist for the next couple of hours as they move along
this gradient. 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE coupled with sufficient shear
for continued supercell structures suggests that storms may not
weaken as quickly as most recent short-term convection-allowing
model guidance would suggest. An isolated large hail threat
continues in the near term with the lead supercell in south-central
ND. Even though locations downstream of this storm are to the north
of a weak surface front, clear skies should allow for diurnal
heating and some steepening of low-level lapse rates over the next
couple of hours. Strong to perhaps occasional severe/damaging winds
may occur if this convection can become surface based. At this
point, it remains unclear if the overall coverage of storms will
increase enough to warrant watch issuance. Observational trends will
continue to be closely monitored.
..Gleason/Guyer.. 06/02/2020
...Please see for graphic product...
LAT...LON   46060098 46629943 46789849 46779722 46709643 46539558
            45909540 45229559 44949616 44929716 45240001 45670097
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