DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

Msg # 1159 of 2431 on Fidonet Weather Echo
To: WX-STORM@LISTS.ILLINOIS.E, From: COD WEATHER PROCESSOR
Time: Tuesday, 6-02-20, 12:59
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ACUS01 KWNS 021259
SWODY1
SPC AC 021258
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0758 AM CDT Tue Jun 02 2020
Valid 021300Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA/NORTHERN IOWA TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN WYOMING...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected from the Middle Missouri and Upper
Mississippi Valleys to the Great Lakes. Damaging wind gusts, large
hail and a tornado or two are possible, with the greatest threat
expected from southern Minnesota/northern Iowa to central/southern
Wisconsin.
...Upper Midwest from South Dakota/Minnesota to Lower Michigan...
An initial concern will be the possibility of isolated severe hail
early today from ongoing elevated storms along the North
Dakota/South Dakota border vicinity. Hail aside, if storms persist
into late morning/early afternoon, some stronger wind potential
could also materialize across far southeast North Dakota/northeast
South Dakota into west-central/southwest Minnesota given a
relatively dry sub-cloud layer within the post-frontal environment
(reference 12Z observed Aberdeen SD sounding). For additional
short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 780.
To the southeast of this early day storms, of greater concern will
the potential for deep convective development across southern
Minnesota and possibly far southeast South Dakota by around 3-5 pm
CDT. A very unstable air mass (3500-4500 J/kg MLCAPE) is expected
across the region in vicinity of a surface front that will extend
from near the southeast South Dakota/northeast Nebraska border
east-northeastward across southern Minnesota and south-central
Wisconsin at mid-afternoon. This development will be influenced by a
progressive low-amplitude shortwave trough/speed max along the
International Border toward Lake Superior vicinity.
Deep-layer winds/vertical shear will be maximized along/north of the
southeastward-spreading front. In conjunction with the strong
buoyancy near the frontal zone, initial intense supercells capable
of large hail can be expected. Storms are expected to further
increase/cluster through late afternoon and early evening as they
progress east-southeastward across far southern Minnesota/northern
Iowa and southern Wisconsin, with a damaging wind risk increasing
accordingly. These linear bands of storms may reach southern Lake
Michigan vicinity and southern Lower Michigan by the late
evening/overnight hours with some severe risk potentially continuing
into the overnight.
...North-central/eastern Wyoming...
A front will settle south across the High Plains of interior/eastern
Wyoming with northeasterly low-level upslope flow expected to
develop by late afternoon/early evening. Boundary-layer heating and
orographic forcing suggest isolated supercells may develop along the
southern fringe of modest westerly mid-level flow. Isolated large
hail should be the primary hazard, but some severe-caliber wind
gusts could occur. This activity should spread east-southeastward
toward the Black Hills/northwest Nebraska Panhandle during the
evening/late night hours.
...New York/Pennsylvania...
Warm/moist advection focused to the east of a warm front will
support scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two early
today, although this activity should tend to wane during the morning
as a passing subtle mid-level impulse shifts away from the region.
The region will otherwise be dry/capped much of the afternoon,
although strong/severe thunderstorms could develop into the region
late this evening into the overnight.
Storms may develop southeastward late tonight out of Ontario in
vicinity of the warm front/nearby warm sector, including parts of
western New York and northwest/north-central Pennsylvania. Although
nocturnal influences may keep storms slightly elevated, strong
deep-layer/low-level shear could support supercells with a hail/wind
and non-zero tornado risk. There is the also the possibility that
storm clusters emanating from the Upper Midwest/southern Lake
Michigan vicinity will move into the region late tonight/early
Wednesday with some wind-related risk. This region will be
reevaluated throughout the day for a possible categorical Slight
Risk upgrade.
..Guyer/Gleason.. 06/02/2020
$$
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