DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Nor

Msg # 1162 of 2431 on Fidonet Weather Echo
To: WX-STORM@LISTS.ILLINOIS.E, From: COD WEATHER PROCESSOR
Time: Tuesday, 6-02-20, 5:31
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ACUS02 KWNS 021731
SWODY2
SPC AC 021729
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Tue Jun 02 2020
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION...THE OHIO
VALLEY...THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Clusters of strong to severe storms are possible Wednesday into
Wednesday night across southern portions of the Great Lakes region
into the Ohio Valley and northern Mid Atlantic, as well as across
parts of the lower Ohio into lower Missouri Valleys, and across
northern portions of the central high plains.
...Synopsis...
Amplified, negatively tilted mid-level troughing (currently east of
the northern Atlantic coast) is forecast to pivot northward through
the Canadian Maritimes, and consolidate with troughing over Quebec,
where a deep embedded mid-level low may evolve by late Wednesday
night.  To the south of this feature, mid-level flow appears likely
to trend more zonal, but remain broadly cyclonic across the lower
Great Lakes through much of the Northeast.
To the west, stronger mid-latitude westerlies are forecast to remain
zonal, and largely confined to the northern tier of the U.S, from
the Pacific Northwest through the Upper Midwest.  As an embedded low
amplitude wave progresses eastward along the central Canadian/U.S.
border, the westerlies may begin to split downstream, with a weaker
branch of cyclonic mid-level flow developing across the middle/lower
Missouri Valley.
Beneath this regime, models indicate that a plume of warm elevated
mixed-layer air (emanating from the southern Rockies/Great Basin)
will overspread much of the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and Mid
Atlantic region, before becoming suppressed southward Wednesday.
This will occur along and ahead of a weak cold front, which will be
preceded by moistening west-southwesterly low-level flow.  It
appears that a combination of evapotranspiration and moisture
advection will result in boundary-layer dew points increasing into
the mid 60s+ across the middle Ohio into portions of the Allegheny
Plateau and northern Mid Atlantic, and perhaps near 70f across the
lower Missouri into lower Ohio Valleys.  Upper 50s to lower 60s
surface dewpoints may also be maintained near lee surface troughing
across northern portions of the central high plains.
...Lower Great Lakes into northern Mid Atlantic Coast region...
At least some model output indicates that a belt of enhanced flow
(30-50+ kt) in the 850-500 mb layer, associated with a convectively
generated or enhanced perturbation, may contribute to convective
potential as it migrates east-southeast of the lower Great Lakes
region by early Wednesday.  This impulse may be accompanied by
remnants of overnight convection which could impact downstream
destabilization.  However, there appears potential for
re-intensification, and the possible evolution of an organized
convective system which could pose a risk for damaging wind gusts,
severe hail and perhaps a tornado or two.  Model spread concerning
the extent of boundary-layer destabilization remains the primary
uncertainty resulting in the maintenance of 15 percent severe
probabilities.  If moderate boundary-layer CAPE is able to develop,
severe probabilities will probably need to be increased.
...Middle Ohio Valley into lower Missouri Valley...
Although low-level wind fields may be fairly weak, modest, broadly
cyclonic mid-level flow may contribute to an environment conducive
to the evolution of scattered clusters of strong to severe storm
development Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night.  Thermodynamic
profiles exhibiting steep mid-level lapse rates and sizable CAPE
probably will be supportive of the potential for severe hail and
wind in strongest activity.
...North central higher plains...
Beneath steep lapse rates and modest northwest mid-level flow,
sufficient CAPE is forecast to develop to support widely scattered
strong to severe storm development Wednesday afternoon and evening.
This may include isolated supercells, generally focused near surface
troughing, from near the Black Hills into northeast Colorado.
..Kerr.. 06/02/2020
$$
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